The Mitch Marner Effect: How one decision put Vegas and Carolina on a Stanley Cup Final path

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RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — A few days in early March 2025 changed the course of the NHL. Mitch Marner was at the epicenter of it.

Marner was nearing the end of his contract with Toronto, and all signs pointed to him not re-signing. Carolina had just acquired fellow pending free agent Mikko Rantanen from Colorado in a three-way trade in late January, and after several weeks it was also clear that would not be a long-term relationship.

The Maple Leafs and Hurricanes discussed the possibility of a Marner-for-Rantanen swap. Marner held the keys with his full no-movement clause, and he preferred staying put and seeing out one more run with the team that drafted him, then went on to choose Vegas, going to the Golden Knights in a sign and trade in late June before hitting the open market.

Marner's decision caused a domino effect that led Vegas and Carolina to this stage, where they'll now meet in the Stanley Cup Final beginning Tuesday night. The Hurricanes pivoted to sending Rantanen to Dallas for Logan Stankoven — one of their best players during this run — along with a pick they then used to trade for K'Andre Miller last summer, in the process saving the salary cap space needed to sign top free agent Nikolaj Ehlers.

The Golden Knights got Marner, who leads all scorers in the playoffs and left no doubt why the Hurricanes were interested. Asked what the team liked, general manager Eric Tulsky declined comment because Marner is under contract with another team.

"I can answer that one," coach Rod Brind'Amour said. “What don’t you like about him?”

When speculation was building last spring about Marner potentially being involved in a trade for Rantanen, it wasn't just a question of hockey. Marner's wife, Stephanie, was pregnant with the couple's first child. Marner is from the Toronto area.

The Leafs reached the second round before blowing a 2-0 series lead to defending and eventual back-to-back champion Florida. The Hurricanes lost in five games to the Panthers in the East final, still missing something.

This season, Marner was a point-a-game player. He has seven goals and 14 assists for a playoff-high 21 points.

“Mitch is playing with tremendous confidence,” GM Kelly McCrimmon said. “I think he’s really savoring the moment.”

Marner credited the coaching staff for putting him in positions to succeed and teammates for finishing scoring chances. Wearing a Vegas hoodie on Cup final media day, he insists he's not thinking about the alternate reality of playing for Carolina instead.

“No, I’m not a guy that lives in the past,” Marner said. “I’m in the present. I’m here in the moment.”

Tulsky was referring to Rantanen when he said of taking chances, “Sometimes it doesn’t go the way you hoped, and you’ve got to be ready to figure out how you’re going to move forward from there.” Trading Martin Necas to the Avalanche for Rantanen did not work out, though getting veteran winger Taylor Hall from Chicago in the same deal certainly has.

The pursuit of Marner fits in the same category, but plan B worked out swimmingly. Stankoven has been a difference-maker for Carolina centering the second line of Hall and Jackson Blake and is showing why he was the centerpiece of the return from the Stars for Rantanen.

Had Marner wanted to go to Carolina, Stankoven could still be with Dallas. Instead, he had to grapple with the strange feeling of getting traded.

“I didn’t see it coming,” Stankoven said. “Everything kind of happens for a reason. Obviously, Dallas got their player, and I just want to become the best version of myself here in Carolina. Just how welcoming everyone has been here, the fans, my teammates, I absolutely love the city and couldn’t be happier that I was able to sign long term here.”

The same day Stankoven signed an eight-year, $48 million contract, Tulsky used one of the first-round picks from the Rantanen trade to acquire Miller from the New York Rangers and sign him long term. By the end of the week, Ehlers chose Carolina among several intriguing suitors.

Miller has thrived with the change of scenery, and Ehlers has, along with Stankoven, given the Hurricanes the offensive finish they lacked in several playoff runs that ended before the final.

“(Ehlers) adds things to it that aren’t what we would ask a lot of players to do,” Tulsky said. “Having that kind of ability on the team — someone who could just create scoring chances out of thin air — it always makes you more dangerous.”

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AP NHL: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl