What remains of the Iran deal as fighting rages
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9:07 AM on Thursday, July 16
By JOSEPH KRAUSS
The conflict between Iran and the United States has intensified in recent days and an interim deal to end the fighting has collapsed less than a month after it was signed.
The Memorandum of Understanding was supposed to halt all military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil and gas. It also set the stage for further negotiations intended to lead to a permanent peace deal and an agreement on Iran's nuclear program within 60 days.
Here's a look at some of the main clauses of the agreement and the situation on the ground.
THE DEAL: The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this MOU declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
THE CURRENT SITUATION: The U.S. has launched days of airstrikes on Iran in response to its attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has fired back at Arab countries hosting American troops. A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah reached shortly after the Iran agreement has largely held despite renewed hostilities elsewhere in the region.
THE DEAL: Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start and, considering the needs for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
THE CURRENT SITUATION: This clause seems to have been the undoing of the deal. Iran says it gives it the right to manage traffic through the strait and potentially charge tolls after 60 days. The U.S. and others dispute that, saying the strait should be open to all without fees, as it was before the war. The U.S. has set up an alternative route along Oman's coast and outside of Iran's control. Iran's attacks on ships using that route triggered the renewed hostilities. Traffic through the strait rose after the deal was signed but remained far short of prewar levels and has plummeted in recent days as fighting has escalated.
THE DEAL: Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
THE CURRENT SITUATION: The U.S. this week restored its blockade on Iranian ports, citing Iran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, U.S. forces opened fire on a ship they said was trying to break the blockade.
THE DEAL: The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
THE CURRENT SITUATION: The U.S. issued the waivers but then revoked them after Iran's attacks on shipping.
THE DEAL: The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent … After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
THE CURRENT SITUATION: Negotiations were apparently paused during last week's funeral for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening U.S. and Israeli strikes. It's unclear if they have resumed, or if any progress has been made. The 60-day time frame suggests a mid-August deadline.
THE DEAL: The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7 with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph.
THE CURRENT SITUATION: It's unclear if any progress has been made toward the highly ambitious goal of resolving the nuclear issue in 60 days. Iran has not publicly made any concessions while reiterating its longstanding position that its program is peaceful. It has refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to visit bombed nuclear sites where its highly enriched uranium is believed to have been buried.
The interim deal called for a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran as part of the final agreement, but it's still unclear where that money would come from. The U.S. pledged to lift all sanctions as part of the final accord, but U.S. officials have always said that is linked to progress on nuclear and other issues.
